That might seem hard to believe, given all of the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments in recent years over the field's perilous state as traditional journalism has been turned upside down by the digital onslaught.
At times it seemed that the very future of journalism, at least serious public service journalism, was at risk.
But that sunny outlook is very much the view of Internet pioneer Marc Andreessen, who has written a thoughtful post on the topic on the website of his venture capital firm, Andreessen Horowitz. I don't buy all of it. But it comes from a very smart person who clearly cares a lot and has thought a lot about journalism, and it's well worth checking out.
"I am more bullish about the future of the news industry over the next 20 years than almost anyone I know," declares Andreessen, the co-author of Mosaic, the first widely used Web browser, and a co-founder of Netscape.
Andreessen bases his bullishness on the "gigantic" expansion of the market for journalism, thanks to the rise of the developing world and the wonders of the Internet. Citing what he calls the "death of the middle" in evolving markets, he predicts that the news outlets that will do best are the ones at the edges, those with the broadest audiences and the ones who dig deeply with a sharp focus.
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With advertising plummeting in print publications and digital ad revenue at disappointing levels, one of the nagging worries is how journalism will be financed in the future. Andreessen sees a mix of funding sources, ranging from advertising and subscriptions (charging for digital content seems key) to philanthropy and crowdsourcing. And don't forget Bitcoin for micropayments — Andreessen is a major enthusiast when it comes to the digital currency.
Take investigative reporting. Several years ago, as reeling legacy news outlets were cutting back severely on the vital but costly pra! ctice, watchdog reporting seemed like an endangered species. And while no one is declaring victory, several encouraging developments have taken place. Philanthropy-funded ProPublica has become a major and highly respected player in the field. Other non-profit outfits have expanded, and new ones have sprung up at the local level.
Thus Andreessen's take on investigative reporting. First, he points out, in the great scheme of things, the total tab for investigative reporting is relatively small. "How we might solve this small money problem," he says, "is via a combination of crowdfunding, philanthropy and subsidization by otherwise healthy news businesses." And the same, approach, could work for pricey war coverage, what Andreessen refers to as the "Baghdad bureau problem."
As you may have noticed, the Internet is awash in junk, but Andreessen rejects the notion that garbage will drive out quality content. In fact, he says, just the opposite will occur. Amid the clutter and noise, high-quality material will become even more desirable and valuable.
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Andreessen gives props to what he sees as contemporary media success stories, from Politico to BuzzFeed to the Guardian and and The New York Times. ("It's great to see the Times has evidently cracked code on the transition from print to digital after extremely hard effort.") And he gives a shout out to some of the operations he has helped underwrite, including the political site Talking Points Memo and the business site Business Insider.
The Internet guru makes no pretense that winning the future will be easy, and he has some advice that he thinks will make it more possible. Journalism executives, in his view, need to avoid thinking defensively and "protecting old artifacts," and concentrate instead on reinvention. "The best approach," he says, "is to think like a 100% owner of your company with a long-term time horizo! n. Then y! ou work backward to the present and see what makes sense and what remains."
So is Andreessen right? There are encouraging signs and bright spots. But my glasses aren't quite as rose-colored as his. And one vitally important area remains a major concern: paying for local reporting.
It may not take a village, but it takes an army of reporters to thoroughly cover local news in a metro area. And metro newspapers have been squeezed, leading to smaller and smaller staffs. While impressive local digital operations have sprouted, they so far have tended to be smaller, complementary to the entrenched news outlet rather than a viable alternative.
Until an economic model emerges for intense local news coverage, I'm not ready to declare victory.
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